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Forecasting Insights

Introduction

The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.

Introduction

The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.

  • Industry & Policy Updates


    02 Nov. 2023

    Clean Electricity Regulations

    AESO Submission for the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Draft Clean Electricity Regulation

    The AESO appreciated the opportunity to comment on the current preliminary framework of the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER).

    The AESO has a public interest mandate to ensure the safe, reliable, economic operation of the Alberta electricity system. The AESO’s core accountabilities include planning and managing operation of the grid 24 hours a day, ensuring Albertans have power when they need it; facilitating Alberta’s competitive electricity market; planning the future of the transmission system and its infrastructure; and ensuring generators and large power consumers can connect to the system in a safe and reliable manner.

    Given its broad-based accountabilities, the AESO is uniquely positioned to assess the strength, stability, and reliability of Alberta’s power system through time. Our submission reflects this unique perspective and the shared interest of a safe, reliable, and economic operation of the Alberta electrical system, now and in the future.

    Assessment

    The AESO has published a revised 2023 Long-Term Outlook (LTO) Resource Adequacy Assessment modelling the proposed parameters of the draft Clean Electricity Regulations (CER).

    The results of the assessment indicate that the CER creates significant resource adequacy risk when the CER comes into effect in 2035.

    20 Dec 2022

    The IESO recently released its Pathways to Decarbonization and 2022 Annual Planning Outlook.

    The IESO's Pathways to Decarbonization report finds that Ontario can begin moving toward a decarbonized grid starting with a moratorium on new gas generation in 2027 as long as sufficient non-emitting supply is in place to meet growing electricity demand. By 2035, the system could be less reliant on the natural gas fleet, lowering emissions by 60 per cent below the IESO forecasts for that year.

    The IESO's 2022 Annual Planning Outlook forecasts electricity demand will increase almost two per cent annually over the next two decades, driven by economic growth and electrification. The report reaffirms the IESO’s efforts to secure new supply and helps sets the stage for additional procurements that could integrate more non-emitting supply into the grid.


  • LTO Lifecycle Activities | 2023 - 2024

    Scope & Input Assumptions Written Consultation | Jan. 5-20, 2023

    Purpose

    The purpose of this initial written consultation is to seek feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the proposed scope and input assumptions of the 2023 LTO analysis.


    Planned Activities | 2023 - 2024

    Targets

    • Seek feedback on proposed scope and input assumptions. (January)
    • Post written stakeholder feedback received. (January)
    • Stakeholder feedback gathered will be reviewed and considered as the AESO develops further analysis. Based on this review, the AESO will provide a summary directional update. (February)
    • AESO conducts further analysis. (January-May)
    • Stakeholder session to present and seek feedback on preliminary modelling results. (May/June)
    • Seek additional round of stakeholder written feedback before the AESO finalizes its modelling and analysis. (May/June)
    • Post written stakeholder feedback received. (June/July)
    • Stakeholder feedback gathered will be reviewed and considered as the AESO reviews its modelling and analysis. Based on this review, the AESO will provide a summary directional update. (July/August)
    • AESO reviews modeling and analysis (June-November)
    • Stakeholder update and feedback on updated preliminary modeling results (December)
    • Post written stakeholder feedback received. (December)
    • Stakeholder feedback gathered will be reviewed and considered as the AESO reviews its modelling and analysis. Based on this review, the AESO will provide a summary directional update. (January 2024)
    • Publish written report stakeholder session to present 2024 Long-term Outlook and provide next steps. (Q2, 2024)

  • 2024 LTO Final Results Information Session | May 22, 2024

    CLOSED: This session has concluded.

    Background

    In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a decarbonized, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO has prepared the 2024 Long-Term Outlook. The insights gained through this report allows the AESO and stakeholders to identify and prioritize additional focus and work required in areas such as policy development, industry coordination, grid planning, market evolution and grid reliability operations.

    Purpose

    The AESO hosted a virtual information session on May 22, 2024, from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. to provide stakeholders with an overview of the 2024 LTO that was released on May 15, 2024. In the session, the AESO described how the LTO has evolved and share and clarify the modelling assumptions, the forecasting insights and the key results. There was also be an opportunity to ask questions related to the LTO.

    Materials

    Session materials are available under AESO Materials.

    The 2024 LTO is available on the 2024 Long-Term Outlook page on the AESO website

  • 2024 LTO Preliminary Update & Request for Feedback | Nov. 15 - Dec. 6, 2023

    CLOSED: This discussion has concluded.

    Background

    In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a carbon-neutral, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO re-evaluated the scenarios in the Long-Term Outlook. This impacts both the Long-Term Outlook and the Long-Term Transmission Plan.

    The AESO is continuing the development of the 2024 Long-term Outlook (LTO) to support the AESO’s mandate to provide for the safe, reliable, and economic operation of the Alberta electricity system. At its core, the 2024 LTO will focus on market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, electrification of different economic sectors, utilization of existing resource mix and economic additions based on decarbonization-oriented policies. The 2024 LTO is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, market evaluations, system reliability including resource adequacy.

    Introduction

    On January 3, 2023, and June 6, 2023, the AESO provided notice and sought written feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives regarding the scope and input assumptions of the proposed long-term outlook analysis. The AESO received responses from various stakeholders and is grateful for the insightful perspectives shared. The primary intent when soliciting stakeholder feedback was to enhance modeling that the AESO will complete for the outlook. The AESO posed several questions seeking stakeholder perspectives regarding government policy, economic prospects, electric load, and generation supply that may guide the 2024 LTO.

    The intent of the November 15, 2023, information release is to present the updated preliminary modelling results to stakeholders for input and discussion. The feedback request is intended as a follow-up and seeks any additional stakeholder insights and comments that the AESO will consider prior to the completion of our analysis and final publication of a report in the second quarter of 2024. Stakeholder feedback received will similarly be compiled and posted and the AESO will subsequently provide a summary directional update.

    Presentation Purpose and Objectives

    The purpose of the Information update is to engage stakeholders in a discussion of the AESO’s draft modelling around the updated Long-Term Outlook Preliminary Results, provide clarification and share next steps and timing.

    Specific session objectives include:

    Stakeholder Feedback

    We thank Stakeholders for feedback provided. Submissions can be found on the right side of the page under stakeholder submissions.

  • Notice to Stakeholders | Aug. 16, 2023

    CLOSED: This discussion has concluded.

    Re-Evaluating Scenarios in 2023 Long-Term Outlook

    In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a carbon-neutral, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO is re-evaluating the scenarios in the 2023 Long-Term Outlook. This impacts both the Long-Term Outlook and the Long-Term Transmission Plan. Therefore, the AESO is deferring the Long-Term Outlook to a later date when more information on any changes to the scenarios and process will be shared.

  • LTO Preliminary Results Engagement Session | June 8, 2023

    CLOSED: This session has concluded.

    The AESO hosted a virtual stakeholder engagement session on June 8, 2023, from 9:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.

    Purpose

    The purpose of the virtual session is to engage stakeholders in a discussion of the AESO’s draft modelling around the LTO Preliminary Results, provide clarification and share next steps and timing. Specific session objectives include:

    • Share our learnings from the initial round of LTO stakeholder feedback
    • Present the preliminary reference case modelling results
    • Provide clarification around current assumptions and scenario framework
    • Seek another round of stakeholder written feedback before the AESO moves forward with scenario analysis and finalizes it’s modelling and analysis

    Session Materials & Stakeholder Feedback

    The AESO thanks all stakeholders who attended, participated and provided feedback. Session materials are posted under AESO Materials, and stakeholder feedback has been consolidated and uploaded under Stakeholder Feedback. Please note, and updated version of the Stakeholder Feedback from the June 8, 2023 session has been uploaded on July 11, 2023.

  • Scope & Input Assumptions Written Consultation | Jan. 3-24, 2023

    CLOSED: This discussion has concluded.

    Purpose

    The purpose of this initial written consultation is to seek feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the proposed scope and input assumptions of the 2023 Long-term Outlook (LTO) analysis.

    Stakeholder comments

    We value stakeholder feedback, and we thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. View all stakeholder comments received in the Stakeholder Submissions section.

    Scope and input assumptions materials

    Can be found under the AESO materials section.

Page last updated: 18 Nov 2024, 01:57 PM