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Forecasting Insights

Introduction

The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.

Introduction

The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.

  • CLOSED: This feedback period has concluded.

    Request for Feedback | 2024 LTO Preliminary Update Nov. 15 - Dec. 6, 2023

    Stakeholders’ engagement, dialogue, and feedback will be key to framing the AESO’s analysis and ensuring that the information provided to stakeholders via this analysis is valuable. The AESO would like to thank stakeholders in advance for their ideas, thoughts, and perspectives related to electric system forecasting and decarbonization modeling in Alberta.

    The AESO is seeking feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the scope and development of the 2024 Long-Term Outlook. Please be as specific as possible with your responses. Thank you.

    Instructions

    1. Please fill out the section above as indicated.
    2. Please respond to the questions below and provide your specific comments.
    3. Please submit one completed comment matrix per organization. 
    4. Stakeholder comment matrices will be published on aeso.ca, in their original state.
    5. Responses due by Dec. 6, 2023.

    Stakeholder Feedback Questions

    1. Was the Nov. 15, 2023 update on the Long-Term Outlook valuable?  
    2. Is there any feedback that you would like to provide the AESO with respect to the updated base cases, purpose and scope of the Long-Term Outlook?
    3. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the government policy and regulation assumptions?
    4. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the macroeconomic, load management and electric load drivers?
    5. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the Generation technologies and cost forecast assumptions?
    6. The AESO would like to better understand how stakeholders utilize and consume the LTO information and data. Please provide any additional comments or insights around items that are valued and what else can be included, removed, enhanced, or altered for the 2024 iteration of the LTO report, Power BI dashboard and data file.
    7. Do you have any feedback or comments with regards to the currently under development scenarios of Alternate Decarbonization and High Electrification or additional areas or refinements that would be of value to explore?
    8. Please provide any additional information that you would like to share, which may contribute to the 2024 Long-Term Outlook analysis development.
    9. If you wish to provide a formatted submission, please do so here.
  • CLOSED: This feedback period has concluded.

    Request for Feedback | 2023 Long-term Outlook June 8-22, 2023

    Stakeholders’ engagement, dialogue, and feedback will be key to framing the AESO’s analysis and to ensure that the information provided to stakeholders via this analysis is valuable. The AESO would like to thank stakeholders in advance for their ideas, thoughts, and perspectives related to electric system decarbonization in Alberta. The AESO is seeking feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the scope and development of the 2023 Long-term Outlook. Please be as specific as possible with your responses. Thank you 

    Instructions

    1. To submit your feedback, you will need to be registered and signed in on the AESO Engage platform.
    2. Please click on the "Complete Stakeholder Feedback" box below to provide your specific comments.
    3. Please submit one completed Stakeholder Feedback survey per organization.
    4. Stakeholder Feedback results will be posted on AESO Engage, in their original state.
    5. Responses due on or before June 22, 2023

    Stakeholder Feedback Questions

    1. Was the June 8, 2023 LTO session valuable? 
    2. Was there something the AESO could have done to make the June 8, 2023 LTO session more helpful?
    3. Is there any feedback that you would like to provide the AESO with respect to the purpose and scope of the Long-Term Outlook? 
    4. What areas would benefit with further clarification from the AESO? 
    5. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the government policy and regulation assumptions? 
    6. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the macroeconomic and electric load drivers? 
    7. Do you have any feedback or observations with regards to the Generation technologies and cost forecast assumptions?
    8. The AESO would like to better understand how stakeholders utilize and consume the LTO information and data. Please provide any additional comments or insights around items that are valued and what else can be included, removed, enhanced or altered for this 2023 iteration of the LTO report and data file. 
    9. Do you have any feedback or comments with regards to the currently under development scenarios of Alternate Decarbonization and High Electrification or additional areas that would be of value to explore? 
    10. Please provide any additional information that you would like to share, which may contribute to the 2023 Long-Term Outlook analysis development.  
    11. If you would like to upload a formatted version of your survey responses, please do so here.
  • CLOSED: This survey has concluded.

    Request for Feedback | Scope & Input Assumptions Jan. 3-24, 2023

    Extension | We value stakeholder input and invite all interested stakeholders to provide their perspectives as it relates to the proposed scope and input assumptions of the 2023 Long-term Outlook (LTO) analysis via the questions set out in the Stakeholder Comment Matrix 2023 LTO.  The deadline for feedback has been extended and stakeholders now have until Jan. 24, 2023, to provide their input.

    Instructions

    Please note, due to the detailed and complex nature of the questions we are seeking feedback on, a Stakeholder Comment Matrix has been posted for stakeholders to fill out rather than answering the questions via the survey tool. Once you have completed your comment matrix, you will be required to upload the comment matrix through the "Complete Stakeholder Feedback" box below.

    1. Please respond to the questions and provide your specific comments. We welcome your expertise and input and should some of the questions not be applicable to your area of expertise please feel free to leave those responses blank.
    2. Please upload one completed comment matrix per organization.
    3. To upload your completed comment matrix:
      1. You will need to be registered and signed in on the AESO Engage platform
      2. Please click on the "Complete Stakeholder Feedback" box below to upload your completed comment matrix
    4. Stakeholder Feedback results will be published on AESO Engage, in their original state.
    5. Responses due on or before Jan. 24, 2023.

    Stakeholder Comment Matrix

    View the Stakeholder Comment Matrix 2023 LTO here or in the AESO Materials section on the right-hand side of the page.

Page last updated: 18 Nov 2024, 01:57 PM