Background

In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a carbon-neutral, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO re-evaluated the scenarios in the Long-Term Outlook. This impacts both the Long-Term Outlook and the Long-Term Transmission Plan.

The AESO is continuing the development of the 2024 Long-term Outlook (LTO) to support the AESO’s mandate to provide for the safe, reliable, and economic operation of the Alberta electricity system. At its core, the 2024 LTO will focus on market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, electrification of different economic sectors, utilization of existing resource mix and economic additions based on decarbonization-oriented policies. The 2024 LTO is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, market evaluations, system reliability including resource adequacy.

Introduction

On January 3, 2023, and June 6, 2023, the AESO provided notice and sought written feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives regarding the scope and input assumptions of the proposed long-term outlook analysis. The AESO received responses from various stakeholders and is grateful for the insightful perspectives shared. The primary intent when soliciting stakeholder feedback was to enhance modeling that the AESO will complete for the outlook. The AESO posed several questions seeking stakeholder perspectives regarding government policy, economic prospects, electric load, and generation supply that may guide the 2024 LTO.

The intent of the November 15, 2023, information release is to present the updated preliminary modelling results to stakeholders for input and discussion. The feedback request is intended as a follow-up and seeks any additional stakeholder insights and comments that the AESO will consider prior to the completion of our analysis and final publication of a report in the second quarter of 2024. Stakeholder feedback received will similarly be compiled and posted and the AESO will subsequently provide a summary directional update.

Presentation Purpose and Objectives

The purpose of the Information update is to engage stakeholders in a discussion of the AESO’s draft modelling around the updated Long-Term Outlook Preliminary Results, provide clarification and share next steps and timing.

Specific session objectives include:

• Present the updated preliminary base case modelling results
• Provide clarification around current assumptions and scenario framework
• Present detailed graphical power BI interface and supporting data file
• Seek another round of stakeholder written feedback before the AESO moves forward with scenario analysis and finalizes it’s modelling and analysis

Stakeholder Feedback

We thank Stakeholders for feedback provided. Submissions can be found on the right side of the page under stakeholder submissions.