Important Dates & Materials

June 23, 2026 | 2026 Long-Term Outlook Input, Assumptions and Scenarios Posted

Aug 7, 2026 | Stakeholder Comment Matrix Written Feedback Closes

Introduction

There have been significant shifts in economic, policy, and industry drivers shaping the Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES). Emerging trends – including increased interest in data centre development, evolving industrial carbon policy under recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) announcements, and growing momentum in technologies such as nuclear, energy storage and carbon capture – are introducing substantial uncertainty and opportunity into both load growth trends and supply development. These dynamics, alongside broader trends in electrification, renewable generation, and economic growth, are expected to materially influence the trajectory of Alberta’s electricity system over the coming decades.

The Alberta Electric System Operator’s 2026 Long-Term Outlook (LTO) will provide a forecast of Alberta’s electricity load and generation requirements based on current assumptions and market fundamentals out to 2050. Developed during a period of continued transformation and uncertainty, the LTO incorporates multiple scenarios and sensitivities to assess a range of potential future outcomes and support informed, flexible, and reliable long-term system planning.

Purpose

The 2026 Long-Term Outlook serves as the AESO’s long-range forecast of Alberta’s electricity demand and generation requirements over the next two decades and provides foundational analysis to support transmission planning, long-term resource adequacy assessments, market evaluations, and policy analysis. The LTO informs several AESO functions, including the Long-term Transmission Plan, Needs Identification Documents (NIDs), connection assessments, ISO tariff development, and reliability and market evolution initiatives, while also examining key trends such as electrification, industrial growth, renewable generation, energy storage, decarbonization, and emerging technologies.

Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholder engagement remains a key component of the LTO process, supporting validation of assumptions, identification of emerging trends, and incorporation of industry perspectives. Consultation, dialogue, and feedback help frame the Alberta Electric System Operator’s analysis and ensure its insights are relevant and useful. In line with the AESO’s Stakeholder Engagement Framework, engagement will continue throughout the 2026 LTO development through consultation sessions, presentation of assumptions and results, and opportunities for feedback to ensure a transparent and informed outlook in a rapidly evolving environment.